Beat the bookie
Here's the key thing to remember about betting: you're not betting against the outcome of an unknown event. Nobody has that kind of knowledge. In order to be more profitable in the long term, you need to bet against the odds of an unknown event...and that requires some educated guesswork and knowledge of human nature. The golden rule is that nothing and nobody is as bad as they say he/ she is and nothing and nobody is as good-and yet, that's what the masses will believe. All "odds" are inflated and if you play the favorites, you never win big but you always lose big.
Play the underdog...as long as it's not a total dog.
Why half-time is the moment when brave betters make most money on the markets
by Kevin Pullein
The Guardian
When Aston Villa played Bolton on the opening day of the Premiership season there were four goals in the first nine minutes - but none in the next 81. When Birmingham played Liverpool last month, there were no goals in the first 67 minutes - but four in the next 23.
It goes to show that when unusual things happen in one part of a football match they may not continue to do so during the rest of the match. It is surprising how many people become convinced that they will. And this can present wonderful opportunities for punters who have caught the bug of betting in-play on person-to-person exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq.
In financial markets, there is a well-documented tendency for people to overreact to events. It is present in betting markets, just as in all the others. And it is most pronounced when there is trading in-play, because then people have to make instant decisions.
The graphic below illustrates vividly how the number of goals scored in the first half of a football match has very little impact on the number of goals likely to be scored in the second.
Yet you can be sure that if there are a large number of goals in the first half of any of this weekend's televised Premiership games - Wigan v Fulham and Middlesbrough v Manchester United tomorrow, West Bromwich v Newcastle on Sunday - there will be lots of people wanting to bet that there will be even more in the second half. And vice-versa. As so often in football betting, there may be value-for-money prices available to those who are brave enough to do the opposite of what most people do.
Clearly a lack of first-half action should not stop punters from predicting goals. The precise number likely to be scored in the second half of a match varies according to who is playing, but in a typical Premiership fixture there is a 74% chance of one or more goals, a 39% chance of two or more, a 16% chance of three or more and a 5% chance of four or more.
Play the underdog...as long as it's not a total dog.
Why half-time is the moment when brave betters make most money on the markets
by Kevin Pullein
The Guardian
When Aston Villa played Bolton on the opening day of the Premiership season there were four goals in the first nine minutes - but none in the next 81. When Birmingham played Liverpool last month, there were no goals in the first 67 minutes - but four in the next 23.
It goes to show that when unusual things happen in one part of a football match they may not continue to do so during the rest of the match. It is surprising how many people become convinced that they will. And this can present wonderful opportunities for punters who have caught the bug of betting in-play on person-to-person exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq.
In financial markets, there is a well-documented tendency for people to overreact to events. It is present in betting markets, just as in all the others. And it is most pronounced when there is trading in-play, because then people have to make instant decisions.
The graphic below illustrates vividly how the number of goals scored in the first half of a football match has very little impact on the number of goals likely to be scored in the second.
Yet you can be sure that if there are a large number of goals in the first half of any of this weekend's televised Premiership games - Wigan v Fulham and Middlesbrough v Manchester United tomorrow, West Bromwich v Newcastle on Sunday - there will be lots of people wanting to bet that there will be even more in the second half. And vice-versa. As so often in football betting, there may be value-for-money prices available to those who are brave enough to do the opposite of what most people do.
Clearly a lack of first-half action should not stop punters from predicting goals. The precise number likely to be scored in the second half of a match varies according to who is playing, but in a typical Premiership fixture there is a 74% chance of one or more goals, a 39% chance of two or more, a 16% chance of three or more and a 5% chance of four or more.
posted by Basil Epicurus at 2:26 PM
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